Publications

Global Credit Data members work together to analyse the data and discuss methodology issues. GCD has published up till now the following papers:  

 

LGD report Large Corporates 2018

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Recovery rate and its inverse, Loss Given Default (LGD), is a key metric in credit risk modelling, whether for regulatory capital, pricing models, stress testing or expected loss provisioning models. 

This report is the first time GCD publishes such extensive analytics on its broad data set. The aim is to present the numerical evidence of recoveries and losses experienced by banks when providing credit facilities to large corporate counterparties. The data set in the report covers Large Corporate (>€50m turnover) borrowers who are recorded as defaulted in bank loan books, using the Basel default definition.

 

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Downturn LGD Study 2017

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Does loss given default (LGD) depend on the economic cycle and if so how can it be measured?

This question still concerns risk modellers and regulators as part of their comprehensive risk assessment. In 2013 GCD published a first downturn LGD study based on the GCD large-scale LGD database. This report provides an update of the analyses presented back then on a now significantly enlarged data set provided by over 50 member banks and covering over 15 years of default history.

 

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Shipping Finance LGD Study 2017

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The shipping industry is the backbone of global trade. More than almost any other sector, it benefits from globalization and economic upturn. This also makes the industry vulnerable to economic downturns.

GCD loss data confirms this general observation. This report based on the shipping finance loss data gives insights regarding four major questions:

  • Does the data tell the story of why selling the ship is the option of last resort?
  • What is the impact of collaterization on LGD?
  • Can you link macroeconomic developments to the LGD curve over time?
  • Is specialised lending actually riskier than corporate finance?
     

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Discount Rates for LGD calculation 2016

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This study provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of five alternative discount rate concepts for computing LGDs using GCD Data. Appropriate discount rates are based on a combination of the risk free rate and risk premium for systematic risk at the time of default. Approaches may be separated into contract specific, comparable and equilibrium approaches. Advantages and shortcomings are discussed in the paper.

The working group was chaired by Stephan Jortzik of ANZ and assisted by Harald Scheule, Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Technology, Sydney.

 

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Project Finance Study 2014

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Global Credit Data members have been working together for some years to improve and increase data on project finance cases.  This study, based on 300 defaults as at June 2014, examines the different elements of project type, industry, location, etc. to see whether they are predictive of LGD outcome. There is also an interesting comparison between LGD rates observed for Project Finance loans vs unsecured Large Corporate loans.

The working group was chaired by Nina Brumma of KfW and assisted by Orla Duffy.

 

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Default Rate Study 2013

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Using both PD and default rate data collected from member banks in 2013, this paper examines cyclicality, averages, prediction vs outcome, accuracy rates and correlations.

The working group was chaired by Michel van Beest of NIBC and assisted by Jeroen Batema of OSIS.

 

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Find out more

Members can find a vast amount of different analytics, either produced by GCD executives or by other members, in our library.

Login first to get access to all presentations available for members (and not only the public ones). . 

 

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